国际原油价格波动对我国外贸收支的冲击效应

The Impact Effect of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on China's Foreign Trade Imbalances

本文以2001年1月至2012年12月外贸收支差额、国际原油价格、实际汇率、贸易条件和产出缺口等内生变量和加入WTO、金融危机两个外生变量的月度数据为样本,采用受限向量自回归(CVAR)模型,实证分析国际原油价格波动对我国外贸收支平衡的动态冲击效应。结果表明,油价冲击是造成我国外贸收支失衡的一个重要影响因素,其作用大于实际汇率、贸易条件和产出缺口。油价上涨将对外贸收支差额产生负向影响,但从长期看,新能源和替代能源的开发利用以及中国出口产品能源密集度的降低,将使油价变动对外贸收支失衡的影响逐渐消失。

Based both on the data of endogenous variables such as China＇s foreign trade balance of payments, international crude oil price, real exchange rate, trade terms, the output gap and the data of exogenous variables such as entering WTO and financial crisis from the first month of 2001 to the last month of 2012, we analyzed the dynamic impact effect of crude oil price fluctuations on China＇s foreign trade balance of payments empirically with Cointegrated Vector Autoregression（CVAR）Model. The findings indicate that oil price shock is a main factor that causes China＇s foreign trade imbalance, and that its role is greater than those of the real exchange rate, terms of trade and the output gap. The rising oil price will create negative impact on foreign trade balance of payments, but the negative effect will disappear gradually in the long term, when the new energy and alternative energy are developed and utilized and the energy intensity of China^s export products is reduced.