投资专有技术冲击、货币冲击与中国宏观经济波动

Investment- Specific Technology Shock,Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

本文将投资专有技术进步引入到一个包含价格粘性的开放条件动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了这种技术冲击对中国经济波动的影响。模型模拟和实际经济的对比以及脉冲响应分析得出以下结论:(1)通过与一个引入全要素生产率冲击的基本模型进行比较,本文所提出的模型很好地解释了中国经济波动的事实,特别是准确地解释了贸易余额的逆周期性,投资专有技术进步对中国宏观经济波动存在显著影响。(2)货币冲击对实际经济有效,扩张性货币政策能够较好地对冲投资专有技术冲击的负面影响。

This paper studies the business cycle in china by introducing investment-specific technology shock into an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky price. Simulation results and impulse analysis demonstrates that, compared to total factor productivity shock, this model can properly explain these business cycle facts, especially about the counter-cyclicality of trade balance, and investment- specific technology has great influence on macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, expansionary monetary policy can effectively hedge the negative effect of investment-snecific technology shock.