我国固定资本存量的重新估算:“一五”到“十一五”

Re-estimating the Capital Stock of China from the First Five-year Plan to the Eleventh One

使用永续盘存法估计资本存量,需要确定基期资本存量、投资额、价格指数以及折旧率共四个变量,其中折旧率颇有争议。折旧率在实际中并非常数,且当取为常数时,折旧率的取值大小虽然对资本存量影响很大,但据此估算的生产函数和全要素生产率增长率却几乎没有区别。现有文献通常取折旧率为常数而忽略其随时间的变化,因而以一段较长时间折旧率无上升或下降趋势为依据,重新估计了计入折旧率变化的省际和全国的资本存量,为后续相关研究提供了更为准确的基础数据。

When using the perpetual inventory method to estimate the capital stock, it is needed to determine four variants, that is, the base stock of capital, investment, price index and depreciation rate. Of them, the depreciation rate isquite controversial, because it is not constant in fact. When it is taken as a constant, the values of the depreciation rate which make the capital stock differ largely almost have no effect on the estimation of production function and the growthrate of total factor productivity. Existing documents often take the depreciation rate as a constant but ignores its variance with time. This is not realistic. This paper re - estimates the national and provincial capital stock on the basis of the depreciation rate which has no significant upward or downward trend in a long period by considering that the depreciation rate varies across the nation and provinces through years.