城市洪涝灾害的间接经济损失评估--以北京市为例

The Assessment of Indirect Economic Loss of Urban Flood Disaster： A Case Study of Beijing

对城市洪涝灾害的间接经济损失进行界定，认为城市洪涝灾害的间接经济损失主要是由产业关联损失与资源关联损失所构成。在此基础上，分别从存量-流量机理、产业关联机理和空间维度传导机理分析城市洪涝灾害的间接经济损失机理。基于间接经济损失机理，分别提出直接与间接经济损失关联分析、城市产业部门关联分析和资源关联分析的间接经济损失评估方法。最后，利用城市产业部门关联分析的间接经济损失评估方法，以北京7·21暴雨洪涝灾害进行实证研究，得出在7·21暴雨洪涝灾害中，农业部门的间接经济损失为直接经济损失的2．43倍。

This paper mainly defines the limit and concept of the indirect economic loss of urban flood disaster and points out that the industrial correlation loss and resource connection is mainly part of the indirect economic loss of urban flood disaster. Based upon this, this paper uses stock-flow mechanism, industrial correlation mechanism and spatial dimension conduction mechanism to analyze the mechanism of the indirect economic loss of urban flood disaster. Then, on the basic of this mechanism, we proposed the assessment of indirect economic loss of urban flood disaster by the direct and indirect economic loss correlation analysis, urban industry sector correlation analysis and resource correlation analysis. Finally, the paper used the urban industry sector correlation analysis to assess the Beijing 721 rainstorm waterlogging, and it is estimated that indirect economic toss of agricultural sector is 2.43 time than its direct economic loss.