太湖梅梁湾藻类及相关环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华的初步预测

Prediction of Blue-green Algae Bloom Using Stepwise Multiple Regression Between Algae & Related Environmental Factors in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu

以太湖梅梁湾 1992 - 1999年的连续监测资料为基础 ,运用多元逐步回归统计方法 ,选择水温等 15项环境理化因素与藻类叶绿素a、藻类总生物量和微囊藻生物量等 3项生物因素进行逐步回归分析 ,找出与生物因素显著相关的环境因子 ,建立多元逐步回归方程 ,预测梅梁湾藻类生物量的变化情况 ,初步进行了梅梁湾蓝藻水华的预测预报 .结果显示 ,水温和总磷为梅梁湾藻类总生物量的显著相关因子 .水温、硝态氮和总氮为微囊藻生物量的显著相关因子 .

This study deals with the relation between algal biomass and 15 environmental factors such as water temperature (WT), suspend solids (SS), Secci depth (SD), DO, COD, pH, NH 4 N, NO 2 N, NO 3 N, TN, PO 4 P, TP, Alkalinity (ALK) based on the monitoring data from 1992-1999 in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu. The stepwise multiple regression statistical method was used to calculate the relation between algal chlorophyll a (Chla), total algal biomass (TB), Microcystis biomass (MB) and these environmental factors. The results showed that WT and TP were the most significant related factors to TB while WT, NO 3 N and TN were the most significant related factors to MB. These can be used to predict the blue green algal bloom in the bay.