运输量预测的递进综合推定法

Gradual Synthetical Forcast Method about Freight Volume

本文根据运输量在一定的社会经济与交通发展政策下才具有规律性的基本特点，提出了一种综合利用各种可能和有用信息的系统预测方法——递进综合推定法，并给出预测模型、预测过程、有关参数的确定方法及应用示例。提出的预测方法在社会经济等复杂系统中有广泛用途。

According to the basic character that freight volume possesses regularity under certain social,economic and traffic condition,a system forcast method gradual synthetical forcast method in which various informations are fully used is presented.The forcast model,the forcast process,the method of determining model parameters and an example are given.The method can be widely applied in the scope of complicated social and economic system.