引力模型在游客预测中的应用

An Application of Gravity Model in Tourist Forecasting

本文利用北京市1985年6月份国内游客抽样调查资料,应用引力模型,选用若干指标建立了北京市6月份国内游客预测数学模型。

The basic gravity model in the study of tourism is introduced. Then.certain factors are chosen, from the sample survey of domestic tourists to Beijingin June, 1985, to set up the gravity model for domestic tourists forecasting inBeijing for the month of June. Finally, the model can be written like this: T_(ij)= 3. 1623 (x_1^(0. 2624)·x_2^(6223)/d_(ij)^(0. 4216)where T_(1j) = the number of domestic tourists visiting Beijing from different prov-inces in June (Unit: 10 thousand), X_1=the ratio of the annual average salary of thedomestic tourists to the price of the train ticket, X_2=the number of universitygraduates Unit: 10 thousand d_(ij),=the time needed to get to Beijing from differentcities (Unit: hours).