江苏能源消费Logistic模型的统计检验估计法及预测

Statistical Verifying Estimation and Application of Logistic Model in the Forecast of Energy Consuming in Jiangsu Province

提出了能源消费的Logistic模型 ,并运用该非线性模型的统计检验估计法对江苏省能源消费总量作了短期预测 ,据此预测结果 ,分析能源消费增长趋势 ,结合江苏省社会经济发展现状与趋势 。

A Logistic model of energy consuming is put forward in this paper, and the gross energy consuming quantity of Jiangsu province is forecasted on a short term basis by Statistical Verifying Estimation of this nonlinear model. On the basis of the forecasting results, some countermeasures for the increasing energy consumption are suggested by analysing the increasing trend of energy consuming quantity in combination with the current situation and development trend of Jiangsu society and economy.