黄河流域旱灾的灰色关联灾情预估模型探讨

The model of grey association for calculation of drought in Huanghe valley

依据灰色关联理论，建立了黄河流域旱灾的灾情预估模型，并 进行了实例分析。结果表明：用此模型预估黄河流域旱灾等级划分，避免了人为主观性，又 与实际相吻合，因而是一种科学实用的旱灾预估方法。

The paper, based on the theory of grey association, the model of grey association for calcution of drought is establisthed and is appli ed in Huanghe valley. By using the model, the disastrous grade belonging of some regions in Huanghe valley drought and the sequence of disastrous grade are made out. The results show: using the model of grey association for calcution of dro ought not only can avoid the artitrariace of artificial judgement, but also can accord with the facts well. So the model of grey assocition is a scientific and practical way to calculate the disastous condition of drought.