林业产值结构的关联分析与产值预测

The Relevance Analysis and Output Value Prediction of the Forestry Output Value Structure

应用灰色关联分析研究福建省 1995～ 1998年林业系统的产值结构 ,绘制关联图 ,分析了各层次的优势因素、潜力因素和劣势因素。以GM ( 1,1)模型为基础 ,运用新息分段选优方法 ,对 1999～ 2 0 0 5年的省级林业总产值进行预测 ,筛选的各阶段最优模型均为Ⅰ级模型 ,预测值与实际值的残差率均小于 3%。

The grey relevance analysis was applied to study 1995～1998 output value structure of Fujian forestry system,draw the relevance figure and analyze the dominant factor,potential factor and inferior factor of various levels.On the basis of GM(1,1) model,the replacing dividing selecting method was used to predict the provincial level total forestry output value from 1999 to 2005 and the residual error rates were all lower than 3%.