含失败度的工程风险研究

Research on the engineering risk included the failure degrees

本文针对某些较大水利工程的风险研究的实际需要,提出了含有失败度的工程风险问题,即把以往二值(成功—失败)风险研究,拓广到多值乃至连续情形,并进而为含失败度的风险树补充了一个新的基本子结构—“成份门”结构,使得工程风险评价的结果不再是“失败的概率”为多少,而是不同失败度的概率为多少,以及失败度的均值与方差,从而更加有利于决策者决策。

In accordance with the actual needs of some large hydraulic engineering projects and some water conservancy projects, the concept of engineering risk included the failure degrees is suggested in this paper. It means that the traditional concept on the basis of the binary states ('success or failure', 'normal or fault' , 'work or out of work') is extended into that based on the discrete multiple states,furthermore, the continuous interval (ie. , the failure degree belongs to [0.1]), and then a new basic substructure, the 'component gate' structure, is proposed to add the fault-tree. so that the engineering risk manifests as the probablities of divergent failure degrees, the mean and variance of the failure degrees, but the probablity of failure . This is very useful for te decision-maker.