新疆制糖业的数学模型及结构优化

Mathematically Model and Construetional Optimization of Sugar Factory in Xinjiang

利用戈德温(Goodwin)期望价格模型，对砂糖供需量与价格间关系 进行了动态模拟。结果显示，在新疆，甜菜糖成了一种特殊的商品，即糖价越低则供给量越 大。价值与价格严重背离，吨糖利润连续3、4年成了负值，并且亏损额逐年增大。因此，对 新疆制糖行业进行结构调整是非常必要的。全疆糖厂由数值分类，可分成：资可抵债管理较 好层、资债持平管理一般层、资不抵债管理落后层。建议对7～8家糖厂实行破产，从而将新 疆年白糖产量调整到市场产需均衡量32万吨上下。

The paper makes the dynamic imitating to relation among granulated sugar price per ton,granulated sugar supply and granulated sugar demand in Xinjing.The model indicates:Beet sugar is changing into a special commodity.The lower the price is the more the granulated sugar quantity supplied buy sugar industry in Xinjiang is.To granulated sugar in Xinjiang,it's price deviate seriously from value so that the product profit is less than zero for three years and total loss of profit keeps going up year by year.So it is necessary to adjust structure of beet sugar industry Xinjiang.According to the volume of debt and level of managing,sugar factories are divided into three clusters:the first,capital is greater than debt and managing is advanced;the second,capital equals debt and managing is common;the third,capital is less than debt and managing is poor.The paper suggests that eight or nine sugar factories go into bankruptcy in order that granulated sugar output in Xinjiang go bake to market equilibrium point (0.32 million ton per year) of supply and demand.