上海地铁运营模式的研究

Study on the Operating Mode of Shanghai Subway

本文首先就城市规划和国民收入水平对地铁运营的影响作了初步分析。从宏观角度对未来五年内轨道交通客流量进行预测 ,应用了滞阻增长模型。在此基础上 ,提出轨道交通运营体制机制改革的新思路 ,票价改革新办法 ,为轨道交通商业化运作作探讨。

In the beginning,this paper makes a preliminary analysis about the effects of city layout and national income on the subway operation,the author thinks that city layout has a great effect on the subway operation mode,and offers the principle for combined regulation in the aspect of subway line layout.Direct relation exists between national income and subway operation benefit.The top-price of Shanghai subway ticket is 4 RMB,only one-third of that in Hong Kong.So,the increasing of benefit of Shanghai subway is restricted by the ticket price of Shanghai subway. Passenger flow is an important basis for the building of subway.On the basis of the forecast for passenger flow in the future five years,the paper proposes new ideas about track traffic system reform as follows:①Subway head office shall restructure;②Deregulate the control of the price of subway ticket;③Simplify operation administration system;④Return the total subway operation tax to Metro,reduce the cost of operation. At the end,this article discusses the feasibility of the subway operating commercially with core problem price.Commercial operation is the only way deficit reduction and deficit elimination,and meager profit and development.The analysis of the operation cost,revenue and construction cost show under the condition of a definite passenger flow,a proper ticket price and a control of cost,it is possible to adopt ″financing,operation management,loan pay-off″ in the new line even with commercial bank loan.If the strategy about financing and the loan pay-off is to be carried out,and there is a clear plan and a detailed financial investment plan is established,in addition that metro company will operate with multiple business and exercise private financing,the loan pay-off capability be even greater.