中国到底需要多少煤炭

How much coal on earth does China need

从国家“九五”计划对 2 0 0 0年原煤产量预测与 2 0 0 0年国家对原煤产量的控制目标相差 5.3亿t的事实出发 ,研究了 2 0 0 0年全国煤炭供需平衡点的原煤产量。指出 ,长期的产量剌激使中国煤炭经济陷入无序竞争 ,而煤炭产量的急刹车又使中国煤炭经济发生震荡。认为 ,煤炭产量调控目标的制定是关系国家能源安全、树立中国经济发展和社会进步的国际形象和体现宏观决策水平的大问题。

Based on the fact that there is a difference of 530.0Mt between the expected raw coal output of 2000 by the ninth 'Five-Year-Plan' programme and the state controlled raw coal output goal for the same year, this paper analyzes the actual raw coal output of 2000 that made coal supply meet the coal demand. The paper holds that the longstanding over-emphasis on coal output resulted in an ill-ordered competition in the coal sector and braking on the national coal output resulted in a shock in the coal economy of this country. The paper therefore determines that decision on coal output control is a question of major importance to the energy security of the nation, the image of China's economic development and social progress in the international community and the level of macro-decision making on the overall economy of this country.