摘要
本文将地震发生的双态泊松模型与地震动衰减的椭圆模型相结合,提出了一种可供工程应用的地震危险度评定方法.推导了基于以上模型的计算公式,编制了实用计算程序,给出了利用该程序对大连市地震危险性分析进行计算的结果。由计算结果可以看出,采用双态泊松模型进行地震危险性分析,改善了一般泊松模型对地震活动呈周期性变化区域的概率估计。该模型理论上合理,在工程应用上可行。
A two-state poisson model for earthquake occurence combined with the ellipti-cal model for strong ground motion attenuation is adopted and a practical seismicrisk evaluation procedure is proposed in this paper.Based on the new model,theapplicable formula are derived and the practical program is written.The numericalexamples demonstrate that the two-state model can improve the probabilistic esti-mation for regions that have different observed rates of seismic activity.This modelis not only theoretically reasonable but also realistic in engineering application.
关键词
地震
双态
泊松模型
危险性
seismic
hazend
two-state
Poisson model
