用自回归AR(P)模型预测医院门诊量

Prognosticating the Quantity of Out-patient Department of a Hospital by the Self-regression AR(p)Model

本文是根据医院门诊量的变化数量,建立了AR(P)模型,采用了现代控制理论方法,作未知参数的辨识,编制了应用软件,由计算机自动完成整个建模过程和利用此模型进行预测,验证预测效果十分满意.

In the present paper,we set up an AR(p) model according to the changes ofquantity of out-patient department of a hospital.Using the method of modern con-trol theory,we draw up an applied software by distinguishing unknown parameter.Both the process of setting up the model and the prognosis by using the model canbe done by computer.The results prognosticated are satisfactory.