川西地震重点监视防御区若干强震预报问题的思考

ISSUES ABOUT THE PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE KEY REGION OF EARTHQUAKE MONTORING AND DEFENDING IN WESTERN SICHUAN

本文对川西地震重点监视防御区近年年度(中期)地震趋势的预报进行了跟踪分析和预测依据的审视,同时对监测预报方法的局限和预报思路的拓展问题进行了思考。

As for recent annual(middle—term)prediction of earthquake trend in the key region of earthquake monitoring and defending in western Sichuan, this paper carries out the trace analyses and the checks on prediction basis, and discusses the limitations of the methods for the monitoring and prediction of earthquake and the issue of broadening prediction idea.