我国宏观经济计量模型及政策模拟分析

China's Macroeconometric Model and Policy Simulation AnalysisThe Research Group of the National Fiscal Models

本文介绍了我们所建立的以需求导向为主、将需求和供给相结合的宏观经济计量模型。模型中利用价格调整方程 (菲利普斯曲线 )作为需求和供给的结合点 ,将反映总供给能力的潜在生产能力和菲利普斯曲线引入宏观经济模型。模型侧重对财政、货币两大政策工具在宏观调控中的作用进行了分析、评价 ,并引入了协整检验和误差修正模型。

This paper introduces a macroeconometric model that we construct with demand-oriented, and combine demand with supply. In the model, we use price adjustment equation (Philips curve) as linkage of demand and supply, and take the potential productive capacity reflecting the aggregate supply capacity and Philips curve into the macroeconometric model. We specially analyze and evaluate the effects of the fiscal policies and the monetary policies in the macroeconomic control. We also take co-integration test and error correction method into the model.