威布尔分布参数估计方法及其应用举例

WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION OF MONTHLY WIND SPEED FREQUENCY WITH NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

本文给出了四种由观测序列数据估计威布尔分布参数的方法。重点讨论了以传统适线法为基本思路,用黄金分割法逐步逼近威布尔分布参数的改进适线法,并作了比较分析。分析结果表明,传统方法以极大似然法最好,而改进适线法优于极大似然法。文章最后给出了改进适线法拟合的南海北部月风速频率的分布模式,并讨论了风速频率的分布状况。

Four methods are adopted to estimate Weibull distribution parameters based on observation sequence.The modified fittingcurve,derived from the traditional fitting-curve method,is emp'hasized on applying golden section to approximating successively to the parameters of Weibull distribution.The comparative results show that the maximum likelihood is optimal among the traditional methods,while the modified fitting-curve method is preferable to the maximum likelihood.The theoretical model of the monthly wind speed frequency distribution with the northern part of the South China Sea fitted is given in terms of the modified fitting-curve metho'd and the distribution is disscussed.