一个选择气候状态向量演变相似的新方法

A NEW TECHNIQUE FOR SELECTING THE EVOLUTION ANALOG OF CLIMATE STATE VECTOR

某时刻气候状态向量、在多维空间中可视为一个点,称为“气候质点”,并且可用一个二维平面曲线函数表示它。因此,这个顶点的移动轨迹可以描述气候系统随时间的演变规律。基于上述概念,提出一个选择历史状态与目前相似的方法。并利用北太平洋500hpa候高度场资料进行了实验,同时与其它相似方法进行了比较。结果表明,该方法简便、直观,并且能够选择较好的相似。

A climate state vector in multi-dimension may be considered as a olimate particle and this particle can be represented by constituting a curve function in two-dimensional plane.Thus, the trajectory of the particle can describe the temporal evolution of the climate system. Based on the above-mentioned concept, a new technique for selecting the past states of the climate system which are analogous to the current states has been suggested. This method is tested with the data of the 500 hPa pentad height-fields over the North Pacific for years 1971 through 1987, and also compared with other methods of selecting analogs. The results show that the method is simple, convenient and intuitional, and can select better analogs.