基于数据库的温带气旋相似路径预报方法

AN OPERATIONAL TECHNIQUE FOR RELATING THE MOVEMENT OF EXISTING EXTRATR-OPICAL CYCLONES TO PAST TRACKS ON THE BASIS OF THE DATARELATIONAL DATABASE

本文提出了基于我国东部以东（23°～50°N 、110°～150°E）温带气旋资料（1989～1988年）数据库的一种气旋相似路径预报方法。在存储上述温带气旋资料的关系型数据库的基础上,采用增设若干定义域（如相似路径选择条件以及间隔12、24小时的气旋位置等）,构成一个可直接用于相似路径预报的扩充数据库。然后利用DBASE-Ⅲ较强的检索功能,选择出相似气旋路径。预报试验表明,本方法客观易行,预报精度略优于主观外推预报,可在业务预报中应用。

In this paper, an operational technique was put forward for relating the movement of existing extratropical cyclones in the Far East to past tracks on the basis of the data-relational database for thirty years. With the addition to the database of some of domains to be used to select similarity tracks and to provide locations 12 or 24 hours later etc., we established an enlarged relational database; and with the help of strong functions of DBASE III, it can be directly used to predict tracks on analog basis and with some necessary corrections. Tests showed that the method is objective and easy to apply and has higher accuracy than subjective extrapolation.