用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行项目概率分析及其微机实现

The Micro-Computer Simulation for Project Probability Analysis by Using Monte Carlo Technique

本文针对我国开展项目评价工作起步较晚，资料缺乏，经验不足而无法有效地应用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行项目概率分析的实际情况，提出了用三角形分布近似代替偏态分布来进行蒙特卡罗模拟的方法。并给出了用该法进行项目概率分析的微机实现原理、流程图以及模拟例证。

By substituting the triangle distribution for the skew (neither even nor normal) distributionof a risk-variable in the case of inadequate data and information, the bssic idea and simulating methodfor project probability analysis by Monte Carlo technique are detailed in the peper. Moreover, the micro-computer simulation principles, flow diagtams and examples are also advanced.