货币供给的内生性与货币政策的效率——兼评我国当前货币政策的有效性

The Endogeneity of Money Supply and the Efficiency of Monetary Policy

货币内生性理论指出公众的货币需求会直接影响中央银行的货币供给。因此 ,公众通过调整货币需求可以对中央银行的货币政策效果产生不确定的影响。本文利用货币内生性理论来分析公众行为对中央银行为稳定物价水平而采取的政策效果的影响 ;并通过实证分析证实我国M2 的供给有较强的内生性 ;我国货币政策在治理通货膨胀和通货紧缩的效果上存在着不对称性 ,以此可重新认识我国当前通货政策的有效性。

The theory of endogenous money supply points out that the money demand of the public could affect directly the money supply of the central bank. Therefore, the public could have an uncertain influence on the effect of monetary policy of the central bank through the adjustment of the money demand. This paper, using the endogenous money supply theories, analizes the influence of the public behavior on the effect of the central bank's policy which aims at the stable price level, and confirms via empirical analysis the strong enogeneity in the supply of M 2 in China, as well as the assymetry in China's monetary policy aiming at the control of inflation and deflation. This paper attempts to help us to reunderstand the effectiveness of China's present monetary policy.