500百帕数值预报产品制作旬预报的随机动力处理

STOCHASTIC-DYNAMICAL APPROACH OF DECADE FORECAST OF SOOHPA MEAN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD USING NUMERICAL PREDICATIVE PRODUCT

本文运用欧洲中期天气预报中心发布的格点报值,组成平均高度场,通过具有耗散强迫的低阶动力学系统的控制方程,作随机动力处理,对有限区域500百帕高度场作下一旬的平均高度场预报。

In this paper, determinate equations of Low-order dynamical system involving dissipative and foreced effects are solved by stochastic-dynamical approach. According to the approach, local 500hpa mean geopotential height field for next decade are predicated using the grid-point data of ECMWF Experiment result showed that the approach can provide a basis for meadium range weather forecast.