中国通货紧缩成因及发展趋势的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Causes and Trends of Deflation in China

本文利用混沌经济学和向量自回归 (VAR)方法 ,实证分析了我国通货紧缩的成因及发展趋势。混沌经济学结果表明 ,我国经济在第四个周期陷入混沌运行 ,因此 ,我国通货紧缩的根本成因在于经济系统内部而非外部冲击。VAR结果表明 ,我国通货紧缩的初始冲击主要是民间投资的下降 ,而导致紧缩局面进一步恶化的最主要因素则在于居民消费需求萎缩 ;货币因素是导致民间投资不足的主要原因 ,而预期因素对于居民消费的急剧下降则起着较为主要的作用 ;民间投资冲击对GDP的影响持续时间较短 。

In this paper,chaotic economics theory and VAR(vector autoregression)are put forward to analyze the causes and trends of deflation in China.It proved that the Chinese macroeconomic system is chaotic in recent years,and the essential reason for the deflation in China is that the imperfect inner mechanism of chaotic economic system lowers its stability.The VAR results show that the deflation was precipitated primarily by shocks to private investment and deepened mainly by the sharp decline of consumption.Monetary factors can explain the most part of the initial shock to private investment,while the decline of consumption was mainly cauesd by expectational factors.The results of impulse-response analysis indicate that the consumption shocks have a long lasting impact on GDP and this can explain the relatively long duration of the recovery.