建立金融安全预警系统:指标框架与运作机制

Developing an Early Warning System for Systemic Financial risks in Chain: Indicator Framework and Operational Mechanism

本文在国内外研究成果基础上结合我国国情探讨了金融安全预警系统的基本框架、指标体系和运作机制。文中强调了在国际金融动荡频繁、我国金融业调整和开放加快、体系性风险增加的情况下 ,建立适合我国国情的金融安全预警系统的紧迫性。仅靠对金融机构的监管不足以保证金融体系的安全。有效的金融风险预警系统必须对综合微观审慎指标 (基础指标 )、宏观审慎指标 (先行指标 )和市场指标 (中间指标 )全面监测 ,同时还必须有合理的运作机制作保证。

Drawing on the international research efforts,this paper attempts to explore the indicatior framework and operational mechanism of an early warning system for systemic financial risks in China. It emphasizes the urgent need for an early warning system as China faces greater potential systemic financial risks in the context of increasing turbulent international financial market as well as accelerating structural adjustments and liberalization in the domestic financial sector. The traditional supervision of financial institutions per se can no longer guarantee financial system stability. Basic elements of an effective early warning system would include a comprehensive framework of consolidated micro-prudential indicators (basic institution-based indicators), macro-prudential indicators (leading indicators) and market indicators (intermediate indicators) on the one hand, and a well-designed operational mechanism on the other.