电力系统可靠性评估的混合法研究

Study of Hybrid Method on Power System Reliability Evaluation

结合蒙特卡洛模拟法特点，提出一种蒙特卡洛模拟法与解析法结合的新方法，其基本思想是：通过对系统采样状态的简单解析判断，使70％以上的采样状态无需优化调整就可进行状态判断，从而减少每一次状态评估时间，成倍地提高了计算速度。该方法很容易与其它减小蒙特卡洛模拟方差的方法结合，从减少方差的技巧和加快状态评估速度2方面入手，既提高了模拟收敛速度，又减小了每次状态评估的时间，较好地解决了蒙特卡洛模拟法计算速度与计算精度的矛盾。通过对IEEE－RTS试验系统的计算，表明该方法的正确性和有效性。

According to the characteristic of Monte Carlo Simulation a new hybrid method combining analytical and Monte Carlo method is presented． In the method70％ sampling states can be assessed directly and doesn＇t need to be rescheduled in order to reduce state assessment time． Combining with the other variable reduction techniquesthis approach not only improves the simulation convergence but also accelerates state assessment process． As a result the contrariety of computational effort and accuracy is solved well． The calculation results of IEEE－RTS demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the method．