中国水分状况对全球气候变化的敏感性分析

Assessing the sensitivity of China water condition to global climate changes

中国气候信息库提供了全国太阳辐射日资料以及 1 2个月的气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照百分率和风速资料。利用改进后的 Penman式估算出全国潜在蒸散和干燥指数的空间分布 ,以及降水量增加 1 0 % ,平均气温上升 1 .5℃、3.0℃和4 .5℃ 3种假定未来气候情景下的潜在蒸散和干燥指数 ,以评价全球气候变化对中国水分状况的可能影响。结果表明 ,随着气温的升高 ,潜在蒸散量会显著增加 ;而干燥指数变化较为复杂 ,与当前气候情景相比较 ,降水量增加 1 0 % ,平均气温上升 1 .5℃时中国水分状况会稍微湿润 ,气温上升 4 .5℃时会稍微干燥 ,而气温上升 3.0℃时中国水分状况将介于稍微润与稍干燥之间。

With the daily radiation data and monthly data of mean temperature, precipitation, relative humid, sunshine fraction and wind velocity amended Penman's method was used to calculate the potential evapotration spiration and the aridity index, at present and three prescribed climate scenarios, with temperature rise by 1.5℃, 3.0℃ and 4.5℃, and precipitation increase by 10%.The sensitivity of China water condition to global climate change was assessed.The simulated results indicate that under the three prescribed climate scenarios, the potential evaporation spiration will increase greatly with the raising of temperature. In the case of the change of aridity index, China will become a little wet under the first climate scenario, and a little dry under the third climate scenario comparing with the present situation. The water condition of China under the second climate scenario is just between the first and third Climate scenarios.