养老保险平衡风险因素分析

An Analysis of the Risk Factors of the Revenue and Expenditure Balance of the Endowment Insurance

养老保险基金存在着收不抵支的风险 ,由此引起缴费率发生变动。根据养老保险基金收支平衡的数学模型 ,影响养老保险收支平衡的风险因素有替代率、就业年龄、退休年龄、抚养比、平均余命、死亡率、人口年龄构成、目标期间、经济景气、通货膨胀、人口迁移、工资增长率、利率等。其中工资增长率和利率对养老保险平衡的影响较复杂。

The endowment fund will encounter the risk that the revenue and expenditure couldn't keep balanced. It will lead to the change of the payment rate. According to the mathematical model, it is the substitution rate, age at employment, age at retirement, dependency ratio, life expectancy, mortality rate, population age structure, economic prosperity, inflation, population migration, wage growth rate and interest rate,that influence the revenue and expenditure balance of endowment insurance. Among those factors, wage growth rate and interest rate have complicated influence.