某地区人才拥有量的预测与人才系统的最优控制

Manpower Possession Quantity Forecasting and the Optimal Control of Manpower System in Some Region

采用分布参数系统的模型辨识方法，建立某地区人才系统的分布参数系统模型。基于此模型，对该地区２０００年的人才拥有量进行预测，提出了从１９９３年至２０００年的各个年龄段的人才拥有量预测值。利用此模型，提出了地区人才系统的最优控制方案，为人事部门的科学决策提供了参考依据。

A distributed parameter system model for the manpower system of some region is proposed in this paper by using the model identification method of the distributed parameter system. Meanwhile, using this model, we forecast manpower possession quantity of the studied region in 2000 and propose the forecasting values of manpower possession quantity of every age region from 1993 to 2000. At last, the optimal control plan of the manpower system is proposed using this model, which provides reference foundation for scientific decision of personnel departments.