柑桔全爪螨自然种群动态的模拟模型

THE SIMULATION MODELS FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF CITRUS RED MITE

本文运用时间序列分析方法对上海市长兴岛前卫农场柑桔园内柑桔全爪螨及其天敌江原钝绥螨的种群动态进行分析研究和模拟,分别建立了关于柑桔全爪螨种群数量动态的多元非线性回归模型和多元混合回归模型。籍以探讨各种生态因子对柑桔全爪螨及其天敌种群数量动态的作用,预测柑桔全爪螨种群数量的变化趋势,模拟效果良好,对田间防治具有一定的参考价值。

This paper dealt with the population dynamics of citrus red mite Penon-ychus citri McG and its predator Amblyseius eharai at Qianwei orchard in Changxing islond, Shanghai.To study the ecological factors affecting the population dynamics of the citrus red mite and in turn to forecast the trend of population dynamics , a non-linear multiple regressive model and a mixed regressive model were created, respectively, by using the time series analysis methods.The results showed that the field investigation data were fitted by the models properly.