摘要
面对日益严峻的自然灾害,第24届联合国大会于1987军12月11日通过了第169号决议案,决定在本世纪最后10年开展国际减轻自然灾害10年活动。我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的少数国家之一。根据自然灾害的发展趋势,如果不加防御,未来10年将可能造成每年5×10^(10)～6×10^(10)元的经济损失与数万人的死亡。据研究,各种自然灾害在空间上、时间上、成因上都是相互联系的。它们的发生既有其特殊性也有与地球整体运动及天体活动相联系的共性。鉴于此,作者提出了“自然灾害系统”的观点,并将其作为地球系统的一个层次看待。山于自然灾害组成了相互联系的系统,减轻自然灾害的各项措施是相互联系的系统工程,因此必要将减轻自然灾害看作一个系统工程。以上的认识,作者在从事气象、海洋、洪水、地质、地震、农业、林业等灾害的专家们帮助下写出了这篇论文。全文共分六个部分:1 , 中国自然灾害概兄;2.自然灾害的群发性和中国自然灾害分区,3.自然灾害的韵律性和中国自然灾害分欺,4.我国自然灾害的发展趋势和减灾的必要性;5.减灾约经济效益与让会效益;6.减轻自然灾害系统工程,7.对找国减灾战略对策的几点岂见。作者相信通过举国上下协调一致的努力,一定会把自然灭害的损失最大程度的减小。
Facing the increasingly serious nature hazard,sthe 24th conferen- ces of United Nations passed the 169th draft resolution on 11th of December,1987,deciding to launch a decade activites of international nature hazards reduction in the last decade of this century. China is one of a few of the most serious countries in nature hazards of the world.According to the developing trend of nature hazards,if we diduot take any measures of protection,it would lead to 50 to 60 billions yan loses in economy and several ten thousands people's death in the future decade. In term of some studies,every kind of nature hazard has its correlation in time,space and cause of formation.Their formation has not only their specific characteristics,but also their general characters associated with the movement of the Earth and the activ- ities of celestial bodies.Therefore,the author of this paper puts forwards a view of“Nature Hazards system”,and regards it as an unit of the Earth system. Because the nature hazards form a correlative system and all measures of nature hazards reduction are a systems engineering,it is necessary to view nature hazard as a systems engineering. This paper was written out with the help of the experts in the field of meteorology ocean,flood,geology,earthquake,forest,etc. The paper can be divided into six parts: 1.General discussion on the nature hazards of China. 2.Group characters of nature hazards and dividing district of the nature hazards of China. 3.Rhythm character of nature hazards and different stages of the nature hazards of China. 4.Developing trend of nature hazards and necessity of hazards reduction. 5.Economic benefits and social benifits of hazards reduction. 6.Systems engineering of nature hazards reduction. 7.Some opinions on the strategic countermeasures of hazard erduction of China. Author is convinced that we must be able to reduze the loses coused by nature hazards to a minimum through all people's ident- ical efforts of whole nation so as to make contribution to guaran- teing the safity of people's life and proporty and the stable devel- opments of social economy.
