倾斜平原区地下水的开发决策与管理──以济宁地区为例

A Stratigic Decsision and Management for the exploitation of Grounclwater in the Inclinet Plain Area──Citing Jining Area as an Example

在多年监测资料的基础上，根据倾斜平原区的水文地质特征，建立地下水水位降速与大气降水、地下水开采量的回归方程，对不同大气降水、地下水开采量条件下的地下水水位降速进行了预测。在考虑了大气降水概率、保证率及不同降水时地下水开采量概率的条件下，对地下水水位降速进行了随机综合决策。依据不确定决策法中的乐观系数法，获得了不同大气降水前提下，地下水开采量的最佳对策，并提出了地下水开发管理的原则。

Based on the data of many year’s monitoring,and auording to the hgdrogeological features of the slanting plain area, a regrsion equation describing the relationship of the falling rate ofgroundwater lerel with the atmospheric precipitation and the extraction rate of gnoundwater hasfeen set up;and the falling rate of groundwater level at various conclitions of the extraction rateand the atmospheric precipitation has feen porecastecl.Ln consideration of the condition of theprotatinlity and guaranteed rate of the atmosphenic precipitation and the protatility of theextnaition rate of groumlwuter at diffenent precipitation,the falling rate of groundwater leuel hasteen strategically decided in a random and comprehensively way. Aaorling to the optimisticcoefficient in the unccrtain dosision-making,the fest scheme of the extraction quantity ofground-water at different atmospheric precipitation has teen made,and the principles ofgroundwater exploitation and management are proposed.