台湾强震的灰色拓扑预测

THE GREY TOPOLOGIC PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES ( Ms ≥ 7.5 ) IN TAIWAN REGION

台湾地震东带是我国地震活动性最高的地区,其东部海域曾发生过两次8级特大地震。本文根据灰色系统理论,利用台湾地震东带1945—1990年期间每3年中的最大地震发生时间构成的序列,建立了台泻强震(Ms≥7.5)的灰色拓扑预测模型: 结果表明,本带可能在1994年—1996年段再次发生强震。经模型检验结果表明,其拟合精度属第一级“好”。

The seismic zone at the east of Taiwan is the region of highest seismicity in China and there were two large earthquakes of M= 8 in the eastern sea area. In this paper, based on the grey system theory, a topojogic prognostic model of Taiwan strong earthquakes ( Ms≥7.5 ) is established by using the time series of the annual maximum magnitudes (per three years) during 1947-1991 in the east of Taiwan seismic zone, that is. X(1) ( t+1 ) = ( 17.0 + 271.81 ) Exp( 0.066119 t) -271.81 The results show that next event (Ms≥7.5) will occur again during 1994 -1996 in the zone and the fitting accuracy of the model is 'Good' by test.