气候状态向量在短期气候变化研究中的应用

AN APPLICATION OF THE CLIMATE STATE VECTOR IN STUDYING SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC VARIATION

本文将Barnett关于大尺度气候场的“气候状态向量”和“气候质点”概念,引入到单站气候变化规律的研究中,在此基础上,采用方差最大准则下的正交旋转因子分析方法,探讨气候状态向量在单站短期气候振动研究中应用的可行性和效果。 文中对上海、北京两地气候状态向量的气候学意义及其时间变化规律作了详细对比分析,得到一些有益的结论。尤其是两站“气候质点”运动轨迹图所显示的类似于相空间轨线的准循环振荡特性,可作为进一步理论研究的基础。

The Barnett's idea for climate state vector(CSV) and climate particle(CP) in large scale fields of climatology are introduced to studying properties of climatic variation of single station in this paper. The method of factor analysis, which is made by means of orthogonal rotation according to maximum variance criterion, is used to verify the feasibility and effect of CSV in research of climatic Change for single observed station. The climatological meaning of CSV as well as its variation in the time domain are thoroughly analyzed for Shanghai and Beijing stations respectively, and some interesting results are obtained Specially.the quasi-cycle vibration characteristic of climatic variation is shown by means of the motion locus charts of CP in above two stations It will furtherly become the basis of theoretic research.