基于新疆地震知识的地震预报专家系统的研究

STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EXPERT SYSTEM BASED ON EARTHQUAKE KNOWLEDGE OF XINJIANG

依据新疆南北天山带地震预报实践中b 值和η值的异常判据,对运用于地震预报专家系统(ESCEP)测震学方法的主要异常判别指标进行了修改,并对修改前后的计算结果进行了对比分析,对预报效能进行了评价。结果表明,修改后的专家系统知识库预报效能明显提高,虚报和漏报率明显下降,预报效能通过检验,说明修改后的专家系统知识库更适合新疆地区中短期地震预报。

According to the anomaly criterion of value b and η gotten from the earthquake prediction practice in the areas of South Tianshan and North Tianshan ,the principal anomaly indexes of seismometrical method in Expert System of China Earthquake Prediction are revised.The results before and after the revision are compared,and their prediction abilities are evaluated respectively.The result shows that after the revision,the prediction ability of ESCEP has been improved obviously,false prediction rate and fail to predict rate dropping greatly,and it passes the test.This indicates that ESCEP knowledge house revised later is fitter for the short term earthquake prediction in Xinjiang.