新疆天山地区定点形变中短期地震前兆识别预报方法及效能评价研究

RECOGNITION METHODS OF MEDIUM ,SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR OF FIXED POINT DEFORMATION IN XINJIANG AND THEIR PREDICTABILITY EVALUATION

应用“七五”、“八五”攻关确定的6 种分析方法并运用2 种新方法,对天山地区10 个测点的定点形变资料进行全时空扫描,归纳出天山地震带MS≥5.0 地震的异常特征,获得了各种方法地震三要素的异常识别指标。并对各项结果从物理意义和统计角度进行相关分析,应用R值、V值评分法对各种方法的预报效能进行了统一评价,最后总结出天山地区1

The fixed point deformation data of 10 stations in the Tianshan area are made a scanning analysis in total time and space domain using 6 kinds of analytical methods that were determined in “the 7th five year”and “the 8th five year”major projects of CSB and 2 kinds of new methods,The anomalous characteristics of the M S≥5.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic zone are summed up.The anomaly recognition indexes of three seismic elements are gotten in every kind of method,and each result is given a relative analysis from the angle of statistics and its physical significance.The predictability of every kind of method is evaluated unitedly by R value,Q value mark giving methods.The recognition methods and index system of ground deformation precursor on one year scale in the Tianshan area are summarized at the end of the paper