宏观经济的混沌模型

The Chaos Model of Macro-Economy

本文在研究二维非线性偏微分方程解的吸引子拓扑结构分岔的基础上 ,结合卡尔多宏观经济模型 ,提出由于经济参数的变动 ,不仅宏观经济运行状态可以是渐近稳定和周期运行 ,而且还可以是大小周期相嵌地运行 ,从而必然会出现起伏不定 ,但又具有尺度大小对称的波动运行特征。从这个宏观经济混沌模型出发 ,可以自然而然并逻辑一贯地推导出新古典经济理论 ,凯恩斯的宏观经济理论 ,以及卢卡斯的理性预期主义理论 ;并且比起这些理论 ,该模型还可解释更多的经济运行现象 ,比如均衡、周期、冲击、自发波动、不可预期。

On the basic of research on branch of attraction structure topology with the non linear quadratic differential equations, and by combining Kaldor's macro economy model, the paper puts forward the following theory: because the economy system parameter changes, the movement of macro economy is not only with an evaluating stability or cycle, but also with overlapping large or small cycle, therefore ,it will show rise and fall motion with scale symmetry. Starting from this macro economy model, we can naturally and logically infer the Neo classical economy theory, Keynes' macro economy theory and Lucas' rational expectation theory. Forthermore, this can explain much more phenomena of economic movement, such as equilibrium, cycle, shock, spontaneous wave motion, non expectation, random vibration and so on.