南阳盆地小麦纹枯病发生程度长期预测方法研究

STUDY ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST OF CORTICIUM GRAMINEUM IN NANYANG BASIN AREA

通过对小麦纹枯病 16 a发生情况研究分析，明确了影响病害流行的主要因素和主要预测因子是菌原基数和冬春气候条件。选择 12月下旬平均病株率、 1～ 2月平均温度和 2～ 4月降雨量，建立病害发生程度长期预测式，历史回测符合率 93.7％， 2000年经预测检验，结果和发生实况相一致。

By analyzing 16 years' data of the occurrence of Corticium gramineum, the number of germ and the wheather condition of winter and spring were confirmed to be main factors affecting disease prevalence and disease forecast. Selecting the average incidence in the last 10 days of December, average temperature in January and February and precipitation in April, a long term forecasting model of the disease was built. The history fitness percentage of the model is 93.7％ . Using the model to forecast the disease occurrence in 2000, the result is the same as the reality.