污染带随机扩散模型的应用——长江污染带预测

Application of Stochastic Diffusion Model to Forecasting the Polluted Zone of the Yangtze River

本文探讨了对流扩散基本微分方程与微观微粒群运动、宏观紊流随饥扩散理论的内在联系,给出了半经验、半理论的关系和修正值的论据;将长江污染带随机扩散模型与感潮河段传输机理以及互不相容事件的概率之和等概念结合起来,合理地解决了感潮河流中污染带浓度预测问题.实测数据验证了上述结论.

The application of stochastic diffusion model for the plluted zone to large rivers like the Yangtze river is a great step forward. This paper discusses the logical relation ameng the basic differential equation of convective diffusion, the movement of the mass of micro particlēs and the theory of the macro turbulent stochastic diffusion, and gives the semi-empirical semi-theoretical relation and the argument for determining the revised value. The problem of prediction of the concentration in the polluted zone of the tidal river has also been solved by combining the model of stochastic diffusion for the polluted zone with the machanism of water mass transport in the tidal river and the summation of two probabilities for incompatible events observed data indicate that the result is satisfactory.