三峡建坝后对湖北枝城市血吸虫病传播的影响

INFLUENCE OF BUILD SANXIA GREAT DAM IN THE YANGTZE RIVER TO THE SPREAD OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS IN ZHICHENG CITY, HUBEI PROVINCE

目的 研究长江三峡建坝后对枝城市血吸虫病传播的影响。 方法 采用回顾性调查及现场观测方法 ,对枝城市建坝前后水位泥沙变化与血吸虫病传播的关系进行相关分析 ,并以灰色 GM模型揭示水位控制决策供水库调度参改。结果 大坝建成后 30年 ,河床将被冲深 3.75 m,河岸被冲宽 2 44 m,常年水位将下降至 44 .15～ 35 .12 m。 结论 如果水库调控得当 。

Objective\ The Sanxia Irrigation Works in the Yangtze River(SIWYR) should lead change of water level and silt of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This paper should study that change of which affcted the spread of schistosomiasis in Zhicheng City.\ Methods\ The interrelation of change of water level and silt before and after build Sanxia great dam in the Yangtze River and the spread of schistosomiasis in Zhicheng City were analysed with retrospective investigation and on the spot inspection of material for studying to influence of transmission of schistosomiasis after construction of Sanxia great dam, but the decision of control water level were announced and the relevant counter measure were advanced by the grey model (GM). Results The riverbed of the Yangtze River in Zhicheng City will have been scouring and descending by 3.75 m in depth, and the river course will have been scouring and increasing by 244 m in width, and the water level of all years should dropped to 44.15-35.12 m after 30 years of build Sanxia great dam. Conclusion\ The Oncomelania hupensis of surviving should be eliminated thoroughly in Zhicheng City if the Sanxia and Jiudao river reservoirs were appropriately regulated.