从体制因素我国通货紧缩的形成及其对策

Formation of Deflation and Strategies

从我国1997年末开始的持续物价指数下降及多年的经济增长速度下滑来看,我国已经出现了明显的通货紧缩。我国通货紧缩的原因不单是宏观经济总供给大于总需求,造成供给过剩,物价下降,而且,我国总供求不平衡的背后有着深刻的制度原因。本文分析了造成通货紧缩的国有企业由“软预算”约束到“硬预算”约束的演变过程,缺乏与非国有企业相配套的非国有银行、限制农村劳动力转移的政策等体制因素,最后,就从根本上解决我国通货紧缩,提出了必须在经济体制改革方面加大改革力度的几点建议。

The standing drop in price index and decline in economic growth since 1997 show the apparent deflation in our country. The oversupply is not the mere reason for deflation. The system factor also counts. This paper analyzes the reasons of deflation: the process from 'flexible budget to inflexible budge of the state- owned enterprises; lacking non - state - owned bank concerning the non - state - owned enterprises; policy of constriction on the transformation of rural labor force. At last, this paper puts forward suggestions for the resolution of deflation.