2000年世界与中国石化工业综述

Review of the Petro-Chemical Industry in the World and in China

2000年全球石化工业恢复景气,需求回升,利润增长。但受国际油价居高不下的影响,石化工业盈利水平受到一定影响。从总体上看,全球石化工业充满活力,关税税率和其它贸易障碍将日趋减少;乙烯产量的一半将位于传统的美、欧、日三元体系之外;石化产品生产成本将继续下降;大宗石化产品的固定成本占完全成本的比例将下降,原料费用所占比例将增加;跨国化工公司将逐渐从大宗石化产品的生产升级到更高附加价值产品的生产。2000年中国石化市场产销两旺,进口大增,需求再创历史新高,石化产品自给率继续下降,石化行业投资主体呈现多元化趋势,中国石油、中国石化先后在海外成功上市,标志着我国石油石化工业的改革发展步入了新的历史阶段。面对经济全球化、结构调整和科技进步加快的国际大环境以及加入WTO带来的挑战,我国石化工业要抓住市场旺需的历史性机遇,加快技术改造,推进结构调整,突出核心业务,扩展市场,降低成本,实现内涵发展,促进产业升级。

The boom in the world's petro-chemical industry resumed in 2000, with both demand and profits increasing. But high oil prices had a negative influence upon the industry. Globally, the petro-chemical industry was active. Tariff rates and other trade barriers are being continually reduced. It is estimated that soon more than half of the world supply of ethylene will be produced outside the three traditional production regions, i.e., the United States, Europe and Japan. The production costs of basic petro-chemicals will continue to fall. The proportion of fixed costs in total cost for petro-chemicals will also drop. Raw material costs will become a greater part of total cost. International corporations will shift gradually from the production of basic petro-chemicals to that of products with higher added value. China's petro-chemical market blossomed in both production and sales in 2000. Imports increased dramatically and demand reached a record high. The self-support ratio in the petro-chemicals is dropping in China. The industry is drawing investment capital from more investors. PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation have listed successfully on the international stock market. This shows that reform is entering a new phase. In the face of international economic globalization, structural reforms, the acceleration of advancements in science and technology and the challenge of entrance into the WTO, China's petro-chemical industry must firmly grasp the historical opportunity of market demand in order to accelerate technical upgrading, and structural re-adjustment. The core business in the industry should be emphasized while at the same time expanding market share and reducing costs, so as to bring about intensive development and the elevation of the industry to a higher level.