一种新的建设项目投资预测模型

New Forecasting Model of the Total Project Cost for Project Managers

建设项目的投资预测是建设项目投资控制的重要功能和基础 ,但目前还缺乏适合我国工程实际情况且能进行计算机处理的投资预测模型 .据此 ,在分析现有投资预测技术方法的基础上 ,结合我国工程建设实际情况 ,运用建设项目投资控制的“2 8”原则 (Pareto法则 ) ,充分考虑建设项目实施过程中影响建设项目投资的全局因素和局部关键项两方面的变化 ,建立一套新的投资预测模型 .

Cost forecast is major and core basic function and part of the project cost control information system.A new simplified model is developed in this paper to meet the numerous requests from project managers in China for forecasting of the total project cost.On the base of China cost estimate and control practice(great changes of policy and market and lack of history cost data etc.),using“2?8”principle(the Pareto principle),the model systematically takes account of cost key items(CKI)changes and all cost items(ASI)changes.A computer program of the model is developed using oracle related date base management system(RDBMS) and comes into application very well.