空中交通管制中轨迹预测的相互作用多模型算法的设计

Designing of an Interacting Multiple Mode Algorithm for Air Traffic Control Trajectory Prediction

研究了相互作用多模型算法，并就这种算法设计了几种方案，同时选取适当的参数对其进行了仿真设计和计算，给出了水平面内不同方案下的仿真结果，验证了这种算法的有效性，说明了通过模型概率实现模型之间的软转换的可行性。研究得出了以下结论：该算法能在平稳飞行时使误差尽量减少；在机动时，对机动进行快速的探测和反应，同时，保证状态估计误差不超过原始的观测数据误差。

This paper presents a simple introduction of the interaction multiple mode algorithm， and gives several designs with different conditions and parameters． After Monte Carlo simulation it gives the results of different designs and proves the algorithm valid．It is feasible to change the flight mode by mode probability -- soft transition． Hence the conclusion: Significant noise reduction is achieved during the uniform motion while maintaining the accuracy of the state estimates better than the raw radar measurements during the maneuver．A rapid detection and response of the maneuver is also obtained．