当前中国经济周期阶段研判——对目前中国宏观经济形势的分析

On the stages of economic cycle of present-day China——An analysis of Chinas macro economy

分析当前中国宏观经济形势 ,其实就是判断中国经济目前所处的周期阶段。但是 ,在实践中要区分周期的四个阶段或转折点 ,是极其困难的。本文从两个层次考察当前中国经济周期的阶段。首先是产出缺口理论、总需求—总供给 (AD—AS)模型这两种工具的综合分析 ;其次分析了价格指数这一重要宏观经济变量。通过这些工具和变量的分析 ,本文的最后结论是 :当前中国经济确实出现了转机 ,出现了复苏的明显迹象 。

To analyze the macro economic situation of China, is to judge which stage of economic cycle China stands now. But it*ss difficult to discriminate the four stages or turning points of economic cycle in practice. This paper investigates the present stage of economic cycle of China from two aspects. The first is the comprehensive analysis of some tools such as the theory of GNP gap, AD-AS model. The second is the analysis of the price index which is thought to be an important variable of macro economy. Through all these analysis, the conclusion is: there are some evident sings that show strongly a turning point appearing in the economy of China, but we can*st confirm that China has gone out of the lowest valley of economy or depression completely.