欧元区货币政策的经济效应分析

Economic Effects of Monetary Policy on the ECU States in Perspective

以希克斯—汉森模型为基本的分析工具 ,根据欧元区各国的经济政策及发展状况 ,对 IS曲线和 LM曲线进行模拟 ,由此分析得出 :欧盟采用统一的货币政策 ,对德国、法国等国的产出、利率影响不同于对葡萄牙、意大利等国的影响 ,即产生了不对称的经济效应。产生这种不对称的原因主要在于两个方面 :一是货币政策在各国的传导渠道存在差异 ;二是货币政策在各国的传导速度不同。另外 ,这种经济效应的不对称 ,会导致生产的专业化、贫富差距扩大等后果。随着金融市场一体化程度的提高 ,以及欧元区各国金融结构的趋同 ,这种不对称会逐渐消失 ,但需要一个长期的过程。

An analogy is made after the IS and LM curves to show the existing status of the monetary policies and their developments in the ECU states. A conclusion drawn from the analysis on the analogue curves according to the Hicks Hanson Model that the ECU policy's influences on output and interest rate of Germany and France have been different from that on Portugal, Italy, etc.. This is an asymmetric economic effect caused by the monetary policy of ECU taken in different transitive channels and velocities in different ECU states. The asymmetric economic effect would cause a specialization of production and a broadening gap between the poor and the rich, and it will vanish gradually in the course of financial integration of the EU and identification of financial structures in the ECU states. Of course, there is still a long way to go.