北京市城区牙体牙髓医生需要量的研究

A study on the required conservative dentists in urban area of Beijing

目的 预测不同模式下龋病治疗所需牙科人力 ,进行供需匹配分析。方法 分层、整群、随机抽取北京市区实际人口 15 17人进行龋病治疗需要与需求状况调查 ,工时测定采用现场写实法与经验估计法 ,利用卫生服务需要与需求法计算牙体牙髓医生需要量。结果 龋病患病率 6 4.9% ,5 7.5 %的人有牙体牙髓治疗需要。一年就诊率 2 0 .2 % ,潜在需求 6 4.9%。预测到 2 0 10年的配置参考范围为 987～ 16 2 8人 (WHO工作时间 )和 10 2 9～ 16 97人(CHcT工作时间 )。结论 龋病治疗需要与有效需求之间有较大差距 ,并将继续扩大 ,牙体牙髓医生供不应求 ,牙体牙髓医生的培养应是牙科人力发展的增量投向之一。

Objective To forecast the required dental manpower for conservative treatment under different frames and to analyze the matching condition between supply and need.Methods 1517 subjects were investigated on need and demand for conservative treatment by stratified,clustering random sampling.The working time were gotten by on splot study and experience estimation.Health need and demand method was adopted to predict the required amount of conservative dentists.Results The prevalence of dental caries was 64.9% , 57.5% needed conservative treatment. 20.2% attended the dentist for treatment in a year,the potential demand was 64.9% .The dentists in need were forecasted to be 987～1628 (WHO working time) and 1029～1697 (CHcT working time) respectively.Conclusion A substantial discrepancy is found between dental caries and demand for conservative treatment.The supply of conservative dentists could not meet the requirement of treatment.The development and training of conservative dentists would be one part of the resource allocation.