综合集成研讨厅体系中专家群体行为的规范

Behavior criterion for expert group in hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering

首先扼要介绍了国内外在复杂系统、复杂性方面的研究情况 .然后 ,讨论了宏观经济决策问题 .由于宏观经济决策问题属于开放的复杂巨系统范畴 ,解决这一问题的有效方法是采用钱学森教授于 1 992年提出的“从定性到定量的综合集成研讨厅体系”的方法 ,它是将专家群体的定性认识综合后再用适当的建模方法处理 ,最终得出解决问题的结果 .研讨厅体系可以看作是由三部分组成 :群体专家体系、信息与知识体系、计算机软硬件技术 .在研讨厅体系中专家群体是一个非常重要的组成成分 ,专家个人和群体的行为直接影响着决策的结果 .专家本人及专家群体的思维和行为难免有一些不足 ,并且他们的行为也受个体、群体行为规律的支配 .本文通过分析个体、群体行为的缺陷 ,为参加研讨的专家制定一个行为规范 ,使他们克服人类行为的不足之处 ,结合先进的决策技术和工具以及建模方法 。

First, the recent research on complex system and complexity from both China and abroad are briefly described in this paper. Then macro economy decision making is discussed. Macro economy decision making belongs to the category of open complex giant system. One effective method for solving this problem is the hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering proposed by professor Qian Xue sen in 1992. Combined with qualitative comprehension of expert group and processed with appropriate methods of modeling, it can resolve the complex problem at last. The hall for workshop is composed of three parts: expert group system, information and knowledge system, computer technology of hardware & software. Since expert group plays an extrodinary important role in the hall for workshop, and both expert's indivi dual behavior and group behavior have a direct effect on the decision making. The thought and behavior of expert's individual and group are inevitably imperfect. Their behavior is under the control of behavioral rule of the individual and group. In this paper, based on the analysis of faults in individual behavior and group behavior, a behavior norm is established for experts in the hall to help them to overcome their defects. With advanced decision making technology and instruments and modeling methodology, better decision making can be expected.