棉铃虫二代成虫高峰期预测研究

Study on the Forecast of the High Day for the Second Generation Adult of Cotton Bollworm

通过资料整理和研究，弄清了影响棉铃虫（HelicoverpaarmigeraHiibner）二代成虫高峰期的三个主导因子。在此基础上，利用模糊列联表法进行了15年的回测和2年的预测，结果达到93．33％，可提前半月作出预测。

According to the study and statistics of original datum,the high day for the second generationadult of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armiger Hiibner)depends on three dominant factors. Based on which,examination for fifteen years and forecast for two years were done by using fuzzy contingency table. The ac-curacy of forecast got 93. 33%. It showed that the way can be taken to predict in practice ahead of half amonth.